<p>PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA</p>     

WANG Zheng  ZHI Rong  WANG Yu  FENG Guo-lin 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):385-398

<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p>  相似文献   

探讨矿业权出让收益制度——以山东省为例     

徐超  高燕  张超  支成龙  陈文韬 《地质论评》2021,67(Z1):67z1171-67z1172

正为维护国家矿产资源所有者权益,党的十八届三中全会提出"统一行使全民所有自然资源资产所有者职责"的改革方向。《矿产资源权益金制度改革方案》(国发[2017]29号)、《矿业权出让收益征收管理暂行办法》(财综[2017]35号)将以往只对国家出资探明矿产地收取、反映国家投资收益的探矿权采矿权价款,调整为适用于所有国家出让矿业权、体现国家所有者权益的矿业权出让收益。  相似文献   

海河流域地下水资源特征和开发利用潜力          下载免费PDF全文

杨会峰  孟瑞芳  李文鹏  李泽岩  支传顺  包锡麟  李长青  柳富田  吴海平  任宇 《中国地质》2021,48(4):1032-1051

海河流域水资源严重短缺,地下水长期超采是制约社会经济可持续发展的主要瓶颈。开展流域地下水资源及开发利用潜力研究,对支撑服务地下水超采治理、地下水资源可持续利用和生态环境保护都具有重要意义。经系统评价,海河流域天然资源量252.99×10~8m~3,生态水位约束条件下的浅层地下水开采资源量172.98×10~8m~3,可更新的深层水可利用量4.68×10~8m~3。海河流域山区地下水质量总体较好,Ⅰ～Ⅲ类水占比40.83%,平原区浅层地下水质量较差,Ⅰ～Ⅲ类水占比14.10%,深层地下水质量优于浅层地下水,Ⅰ～Ⅳ类水占比74.25%。海河流域山区地下水开采潜力总体较小,燕山和太行山北部山区,地下水资源禀赋较差,基本无开采潜力,太行中部山区地下水开采程度较高,无开采潜力或开采潜力较小,太行南部山区地下水资源禀赋良好,开采潜力较大;平原区浅层地下水在不同水文地质单元开采潜力差异较大,山前平原浅层地下水长期超采形成大范围降落漏斗,无开采潜力或潜力较小,中东部平原浅层地下水资源禀赋较差,以微咸水为主,开采潜力较小,山东省鲁北平原区浅层地下水开采程度较低,聊城—德州一带开采潜力较大;雄安新区地下水总体无开采潜力。平原区深层地下水基本无开采潜力。  相似文献   

MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTING OF LOW TEMPERATURE AND ICY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008     

张玲  智协飞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(1):67-75

Based on the daily mean temperature and 24-h accumulated total precipitation over central and southern China, the features and the possible causes of the extreme weather events with low temperature and icing conditions,which occurred in the southern part of China during early 2008, are investigated in this study. In addition, multimodel consensus forecasting experiments are conducted by using the ensemble forecasts of ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and CMA taken from the TIGGE archives. Results show that more than a third of the stations in the southern part of China were covered by the extremely abundant precipitation with a 50-a return period, and extremely low temperature with a 50-a return period occurred in the Guizhou and western Hunan province as well. For the 24- to 216-h surface temperature forecasts, the bias-removed multimodel ensemble mean with running training period(R-BREM) has the highest forecast skill of all individual models and multimodel consensus techniques. Taking the RMSEs of the ECMWF 96-h forecasts as the criterion, the forecast time of the surface temperature may be prolonged to 192 h over the southeastern coast of China by using the R-BREM technique. For the sprinkle forecasts over central and southern China, the R-BREM technique has the best performance in terms of threat scores(TS) for the 24- to 192-h forecasts except for the 72-h forecasts among all individual models and multimodel consensus techniques. For the moderate rain, the forecast skill of the R-BREM technique is superior to those of individual models and multimodel ensemble mean.  相似文献   

ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

智协飞  张璟  段晚锁 《大气科学》2015,39(4):767-776

本文将ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区与多模式集合预报方法相结合, 提出了一种能够有效提高预报技巧且又具有较小计算成本的多模式集合预报方法。该方法在目标观测敏感区内采用模式不等权的多模式超级集合预报方法(SUP), 而在其他区域采用相对简单的等权的多模式消除偏差集合平均方法(BREM)。利用CMIP5中15个气候系统模式的工业革命前参照试验(pi-Control)数据, 针对热带太平洋海温的长期演变开展了理想预报试验。将新集合预报方法与现有的多模式集合预报方法进行了比较。结果表明, 在所考察的预报期内(即1～20年), 新集合预报方法与整个热带太平洋区域使用SUP方法具有相当的预报技巧, 但前者的计算成本明显小于后者, 计算时间仅为后者的1/4。可见, 新方法是一个具有较高预报技巧且计算成本较小的多模式集合预报方法。同时, 其较高的预报技巧强调了热带太平洋SST预测对ENSO目标观测敏感区内的模式误差也是极端敏感的, 也正因如此, 多模式集合预报方法才能够有效过滤模式误差的影响, 具有较高的预报技巧。  相似文献   

SHPTS: towards a new method for generating precise global ionospheric TEC map based on spherical harmonic and generalized trigonometric series functions   总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8  

Zishen Li  Yunbin Yuan  Ningbo Wang  Manuel Hernandez-Pajares  Xingliang Huo 《Journal of Geodesy》2015,89(4):331-345

  相似文献   

地磁秒采样数据智能分析系统软件     

郅红魁  赵彦旭  谢佳兴  侯博文  刘庆华  宋建锁 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(3):284-290

地磁秒采样仪器观测过程中,易受各种环境干扰造成数据异常,如磁暴、高压直流输电、人为干扰、仪器故障等,不易被发现并识别,若不能及时处理,将会造成观测数据质量下降。若诸多干扰与磁扰叠加,将更不易识别,导致数据的错误处理。为了提高观测质量,利用现有编程技术,开发地磁秒采样数据智能分析系统软件,实现对地磁观测仪器工作状态、各种干扰、磁暴等现象的实时监控和分析,及时发现异常并报警,同时利用多台数据对比智能分析软件,对复杂干扰和高压直流输电干扰进行自动识别,并数据曲线中标示干扰位置,提高数据资料处理的准确性和有效性。  相似文献   

COMPARISONS OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE SOUTH ASIA HIGH BETWEEN NCEP/NCAR AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATASETS     

陈雯  智协飞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2008,14(2):121-124

Comparisons of the west Pacific subtropical high with the South Asia High are made using the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF 500 hPa and 100 hPa monthly boreal geopotential height fields for the period 1961 - 2000. Discrepancies are found for the time prior to 1980. The west Pacific subtropical high in the NCEP/NCAR data is less intense than in ECMWF data before 1980. The range and strength of the west Pacific subtropical high variation described by the NCEP/NCAR data are larger than those depicted by ECMWF data. The same situation appears in the 100-hPa geopotential field. These discoveries suggest that the interdecadal variation of the two systems as shown by the NCEP/NCAR data may not be true. Besides, the South Asia High center in the NCEP/NCAR data is obviously stronger than in the ECMWF data during the periods 1969, 1979 - 1991 and 1992 - 1995. Furthermore, the range is larger from 1992 to 1995.  相似文献   

中国近530年干湿变化及其持续性特征研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

龚志强  支蓉  封国林  张强 《气象学报》2009,67(2):307-320

采用中国530年旱涝指数序列,并将其划分为华北和西北东部地区(Ⅰ区)、长江流域地区(Ⅱ区)以及中南和东南沿海地区(Ⅲ区)3个区域.应用功率谱、滤波方法、BG算法等研究旱涝指数序列各相对平稳均值段之间的干湿转化特征.结果表明,近130年的干旱时段和历史上的干早或偏旱时段相比,Ⅰ区干湿转化频率有所加快;Ⅱ区于湿转化频率没有太大变化;Ⅲ区干湿转化频率有所降低.并且重大干湿转折时期大多对应突变点比较集中,即这一时期气候态不稳定,容易发生突变或符种极端气候事件.结合小波系数的周期分析结果发现,Ⅰ区从1920年左右开始的干旱,在经历了20世纪70年代末以来的严重干旱以后,有可能在21世纪再持续50到70年,其后再一次发生由干旱向湿润的转型;Ⅱ区则有可能在接下来的几十年中持续湿润期相对集中的情况.此外,Ⅰ-Ⅲ区干湿变化的特征与北半球的气候变化有一定的对应关系;Ⅰ区的干湿变化与当地温度变化具有较好的止相关;Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区干湿变化与温度变化的联系较Ⅰ区差一些;太平洋年代际涛动可能对3个区域的干湿转化均有不同程度的影响.在此基础上,定义旱(涝)尺度因子,可以定量描述旱涝持续性的区域特征;滑动计算旱(涝)尺度因子,可以检测哪一时段对应有旱涝群发性事件及重大干湿期的转折.  相似文献   

温度破纪录事件预测理论研究   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10  

封国林  杨杰  万仕全  侯威  支蓉 《气象学报》2009,67(1):61-74

分析中国740个常规观测站1960-2005年日最高、最低温度器测资料,揭示了46年来中国日最高、最低温度破纪录事件的强度特征.利用历史观测资料验证了日温度极值服从高斯分布,并将历史资料中已知的高、低温破纪录事件作为初始条件,经冗长的理论推导得到破纪录温度的期望值,与用纯极值理论进行迭代获得的结果相比,前者更符合观测事实,预测效果更好.在此基础上对中国未来可能发生的高、低温破纪录事件进行了预测评估,给出了各地区高、低温破纪录事件强度理论上所能达到的最大、最小值分布.结果表明中国各地区极端温度变化幅度差异明显,具有明显的区域特征,西南地区的极端高温事件强度未来处于较大上升期,西部相对较小;而极端低温事件强度降幅最大的区域位于东北和西北部地区,华中及西南地区处于相对平稳期.  相似文献